HJR 203 Tracker — Florida Homestead Property Tax Elimination

Probability Estimates

P(Reaches Ballot)

38%

Senate passage required (3/5 supermajority)

P(Voter Approval | On Ballot)

40%

Needs 60% supermajority — polls split

P(Full Passage)

15%

CI: 10% – 25%

Ballot placement AND 60% voter approval

Probability Decomposition

Senate passes in regular session

Special session called + passes

35%

On ballot (given legislature passes)

95%

combined → P(reaches ballot) ≈ 38%

Voters approve at 60% threshold

40%

× 38% ballot × 40% voter = ≈ 15% full passage

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Manifold Market LIVE

"Will Florida's elimination of Property Tax for Homesteaders pass in the Nov 2026 elections?"

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Timeline

Financial Signals LIVE DATA

Financial instruments that should move if markets are pricing in HJR 203 passage. All charts show ratios oriented so that higher = more likely passage.

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JOE / XHB Ratio

FL pure-play (JOE) vs. national homebuilders (XHB)

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Ratio above 1.0 = JOE outperforming XHB. Rising ratio = FL real estate sentiment strengthening.

Higher = bullish for passage

CPT / EQR Ratio

Camden (SE/FL REIT) vs. Equity Residential (coastal REIT)

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CPT has meaningful Sunbelt/Florida exposure. Rising ratio = FL REIT market strengthening vs. coastal.

Higher = bullish (many confounders)

BKU / KRE Ratio

BankUnited (FL bank, ~95% FL deposits) vs. regional bank ETF (KRE)

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BKU holds FL munis + FL real estate loans. Rising ratio = FL banking outperforming = bullish.

Higher = FL banks strong = bullish

FL / US Home Values

Zillow ZHVI: FL typical home value vs. national

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FL homes appreciating faster than US = demand signal. Tax elimination would boost FL home values.

Higher = FL outperforming US

JOE / XHB Ratio

FL homebuilder vs. national. Higher = FL outperforming = bullish.

CPT / EQR Ratio

Sunbelt REIT vs. coastal REIT. Higher = FL/Sunbelt outperforming = bullish.

BKU / KRE Ratio

FL bank vs. regional banks. Higher = FL banking sector outperforming = bullish.

FL / US Home Value Ratio (Zillow ZHVI)

FL typical home value vs. US. Higher = FL homes outperforming national. Source: FRED/Zillow.

Polls & Political Signals

Polling Data

Key polls on FL property tax elimination. The 60% threshold line shows what's needed.

Poll Detail

Date	Pollster	N	Support	Oppose	MOE
May 2025	WUSF/FL Survey	1,200	46%	—	—
Sep 2025	James Madison Institute	1,200	65%	15%	±2.8%
Oct 2025	UNF PORL	728	49%	43%	±4.25%

JMI poll uses favorable framing. UNF PORL is most methodologically neutral. Both below 60% needed.

Key Politician Statements

Date	Who	Statement	Signal
Mar 31, 2025	Gov. DeSantis	"Property taxes are the most significant [tax] impacting Floridians"	Bullish
Oct 29, 2025	Gov. DeSantis	Wants "just one constitutional amendment" on property taxes in 2026	Bullish
Feb 19, 2026	Speaker Perez	Pushes HJR 203 through House 80-30 — "historic vote"	Bullish
Feb 19, 2026	Gov. DeSantis	"It's better to do it right than do it quick" — sides with Senate	Bearish
Feb 2026	Sen. Hooper (R)	"We're very careful about what we do" — no timeline for Senate bill	Bearish
Feb 2026	Sen. Pres. Albritton	"Getting it right is more important than doing it quickly"	Bearish

Forecast Log

Running log of probability updates. Add new entries at the top by editing the forecastLog array in the source.

Methodology & Assumptions

This dashboard applies Tetlockian superforecasting principles to estimate the probability that HJR 203 (or a substantively similar joint resolution) both passes the Florida Legislature and is approved by 60%+ of voters in November 2026.

Base rate: FL constitutional amendments proposed by the legislature requiring 60% voter approval have a mixed track record. Amendment 4 (abortion, 2024) got 57% and failed.
Decomposition: P(Senate passes) × P(on ballot | passes) × P(voters approve at 60%). Each conditional estimated independently.
Financial signals: JOE, XHB, CPT, EQR, BKU, KRE data pulled live from Alpha Vantage (free tier, 5 req/min). All charts show ratios oriented so higher = more bullish for passage.
Manifold Market: Live probability from Manifold Markets API (CORS-friendly, no key). Low liquidity caveat applies.
FL bank proxy: BKU (BankUnited, ~95% FL deposits) vs. KRE (S&P Regional Banking ETF). BKU holds FL muni bonds and FL real estate loans — both directly affected by HJR 203.
Zillow ZHVI: FL vs. US typical home value ratio from FRED (series FLUCSFRCONDOSMSAMID / USAUCSFRCONDOSMSAMID). Monthly, ~1 month lag. FL homes appreciating faster than US = demand signal consistent with tax elimination expectations.
Polling: Three polls with varying methodology. UNF PORL (49%) most neutral. JMI (65%) favorable framing. 60% threshold is genuinely hard.
Key uncertainties: (1) Whether DeSantis calls a special session; (2) Senate willingness to negotiate; (3) Opposition campaign effectiveness.

Data freshness: Stock data and Manifold probability refresh on page load and via the "Refresh Market Data" button. Zillow ZHVI updates monthly with ~1 month lag (fallback data in source). Polls, timeline events, and forecast log are manually maintained.