Narcissist Forecasting Contest
2026 forecasting competition tracker with leaderboards, prop analytics, and Monte Carlo simulations. (February 2026)
Forecasting Contest Calibration
Forecaster calibration across 10 years of Narcissist Forecasting Contest data (2016–2025). (January 2026)
Fertility Rate Explorer
Why are birth rates falling? 265 countries and 75,000 US survey respondents — marriage, religion, economics, and projections. (February 2026)
AI Employment Futures
How will AI reshape US employment over the next decade? Prediction market anchors, industry breakdowns, probability bands. (February 2026)
NFL Valuation Explorer
What drives NFL franchise valuations — correlations, regression models, and team comparisons. (February 2026)
Birds of AI Assessment
Self-assess your business analytics skills across three dimensions: domain, statistics, coding. (January 2026)
Deliberate Practice Calculator
Inventory your lifetime hours, score them on practice quality, and see how much of your skill is explained by practice. (May 2026)
HJR 203 Tracker
Florida Homestead Property Tax Elimination — probability dashboard with Manifold market data, FL-specific financial signals, and Zillow home value ratios. (February 2026)
Mabel's Providence Adventure
Mobile runner game starring Mabel the Bernedoodle romping through Providence collecting treats. Best on phones. (April 2026)
Career Payoff Explorer
Lifetime earnings distributions across six career archetypes — sliders for time horizon, economy, and AI scenario. (May 2026)
The Sludge Machine
Buy the same car three times — alone, with an AI negotiating for you, and against the dealer's AI. A game about sludge and dominant strategies. (July 2026)
The Seen and the Unseen: Rent Control in Providence
An interactive data essay on the proposed 4% rent stabilization cap in Providence — who gains, who pays, and how the housing supply adjusts. (July 2026)
Rhode Island Labor Reality
Employment-population ratio for Rhode Island, New England, and the US, decomposed by participation vs. unemployment, with 50-state choropleths. (September 2026)
When Should the New Year Begin?
How seven calendars set the start of the year, and how each lines up with the temperature, rainfall, and harvest of the place it comes from. (September 2026)
Do Expensive Gyms Attract Wealthier Members?
Three independent tests — Google Trends, gym chain geography, and BLS consumer spending — of whether premium gyms serve wealthier members. (February 2026)
Vowel Space Explorer
Drag around the vowel chart and hear English vowels change as you move pitch, formants F1–F3, and nasality, with a live source-filter spectrum. (September 2026)
Gen X Mesofacts
68 charts of the big, slow American trends of a Gen X lifetime, from teen births and crime to oil and newspapers, with an optional overlay of where the 1985–90 trend pointed. (October 2026)
AI and the Analyst Labor Market
Supply and demand for data analysts after AI: move productivity, self-service, appetite for analysis, and AI slop, and watch salaries and headcount shift. (October 2026)